Lou Smyrlis

Globalization had much to contribute to the elevation of the supply chain profession from the backroom to the board room.

When supply chains become so extended they cross continents and must contend with a multitude of customs regulations, currencies and modal options, it’s almost impossible to ignore the importance of supply chain managers in ensuring everything falls into place as it should.

Canadian companies are highly reliant on exports and our research shows more than a third of supply chain managers have global responsibilities.

But the global ambitions of many exporters have distinctly clipped of late. Consider the latest survey of exporters conducted by Export Development Canada earlier this year. When it surveyed exporters in January it found exporter confidence had fallen to a third consecutive all-time low over the past 18 months.

The share of respondents indicating that the global economy would get worse surged to 64 per cent from 51 per cent in the spring of 2008, and 30 per cent in the fall of 2007. The percentage of exporters expecting their international sales to remain the same or worsen jumped to 62 per cent in the fall, the highest level ever.

Does this mean supply chain managers with global responsibilities will be sitting idle? Perhaps yes, perhaps no.

The EDC study found that concerns about the domestic economy hit a new high, with 57 per cent of respondents expecting domestic conditions to worsen, a 15 per cent leap in just 6 months. And a third of exporters now consider the US to be their riskiest market. With the North American economy still in meltdown mode, Canadian companies may have to look at the world’s developing markets to boost their sales.

In fact, the EDC found that when it comes to trade opportunities, Canadian exporters are more polarized than ever before. While respondents who believed that international trade opportunities will worsen grew from 23 per cent to 38 per cent, compared to 6 months ago, the number of respondents who believed they would improve also grew to 33 per cent from 28 per cent in the same period.

These results may suggest that the growing number of Canadian exporters that have expanded into non-traditional markets in the past two years think that those opportunities will help to shore up near-term activity.

And they may also indicate that supply chain managers with global responsibilities shouldn’t be planning that long-hoped for golf vacation just yet.

Hopes that there is finally light at the end of the tunnel based on recent reports of US truck tonnage showing a spike in January are, unfortunately, wishful thinking.

US truck tonnage did spike 3% in January but that’s only because December’s numbers were so dismal. Put the spike in perspective and you see why there’s no reason to be optimistic: compared to the previous January, the month was down 10.8%; and the month’s tonnage was the second lowest since October 2002.

As the American Trucking Association’s chief economist Bob Costello pointed out, just because the tonnage figures show the occasional spike is no indication the US economy is on the mend. The reality is that tonnage is still showing significant drops on a year-to-year basis.

FTR Associates, well known for their transportation sector outlooks, sees economic activity declining sharply in the US with the first quarter economic activity forecast to decline another 4.8% after falling 3.8% in the final quarter of 2008. Loadings are forecast to drop another 10% over the next several months and be off by more than 7% in 2009. That represents more than a doubling of the dropoff forecasted just a couple of months ago.

FTR expects the US economy to continue contracting right through to the third quarter of 2009. To make matters worse, there is also concern about a protracted “down cycle” in which the US economy remains stuck in neutral into 2010.

Canadian exporters are also not looking at the US market through rose colored glasses. Sentiment among Canadian exporters has hit a record low. They now see the United States as among the riskiest markets in which to sell goods, according to a semi-annual confidence survey conducted by Export Development Canada.

At the same time, concerns about the domestic economy hit a new high, with 57% of respondents expecting domestic conditions to worsen, a 15% leap in just six months.
Despite all the bankruptcies of the past year, FTR points out that the amount of excess capacity in the market remains troubling. Its latest forecast has capacity utilization staying below 70% through the third quarter of 2009.

There is already a great deal of pressure on rates but motor carriers with 30% of their equipment lying idle will likely be pressured into more rate cuts and perhaps even more questionable business decisions.